Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Bills
Market66.3%
Model69.5%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadBills -3.5 -115NoVig+4.7% EV
MoneylineBills -203Kalshi
TotalUnder 50.5 -102NoVig+9.5% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Justin Herbert
Chargers · QBQB Elo
+30
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
30.8
Games
49
Josh Allen
Bills · QBQB Elo
+90
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
51.9
Games
56
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.
Injuries
Chargers injuriesNo reported injuries.
Bills injuriesTy Johnson · RB · Questionable
Hamstring
Cole Bishop · S · Questionable
Knee / Groin
T.J. Sanders · DE · Questionable
Knee / Illness