Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Broncos
Market45.1%
Model51.9%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadBroncos +2.5 -104NoVig+12.4% EV
MoneylineBroncos +122Kalshi
TotalUnder 46.5 -111NoVig-3.9% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford
Rams · QBQB Elo
+27
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
29.8
Games
43
Bo Nix
Broncos · QBQB Elo
+46
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
36.4
Games
18
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.