Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Vanderbilt
Market59.3%
Model68.4%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadCommodores -3 -110ProphetX+7.3% EV
MoneylineCommodores -154ProphetX
TotalOver 50 -113ProphetX+6.1% EV