Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Duke
Market76.5%
Model81.0%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadDevils -9.5 -113Kalshi-0.1% EV
MoneylineDevils -335Kalshi
TotalOver 51.5 +110ProphetX+10.2% EV