Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Delaware Blue
Market63.3%
Model62.5%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadChanticleers +4.5 -108Kalshi+0.3% EV
MoneylineHens -186Kalshi
TotalOver 57.5 +100Kalshi+1.9% EV