Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Maryland
Market42.6%
Model52.4%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadTerrapins +2.5 +117Kalshi+24.3% EV
MoneylineTerrapins +138Kalshi
TotalOver 53.5 -113Kalshi-3.3% EV