Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Texas State
Market56.5%
Model46.5%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadGreen +2.5 +105ProphetX+18.1% EV
MoneylineGreen +132ProphetX
TotalOver 62.5 -109ProphetX+1.3% EV