Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Rice
Market24.6%
Model27.6%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadOwls +9.5 -104Kalshi+8.1% EV
MoneylineBroncos -317Kalshi
TotalOver 43.5 -108Kalshi+0.2% EV