Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Louisville
Market52.6%
Model51.6%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadMustangs +1.5 -104Kalshi+1.2% EV
MoneylineCardinals -113Kalshi
TotalUnder 59.5 -108Kalshi+1.5% EV