Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Arizona State
Market64.3%
Model68.9%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadDevils -5.5 +100ProphetX+2.8% EV
MoneylineDevils -198ProphetX
TotalOver 50.5 -104ProphetX+5.2% EV